The impact of SARS remains confined to the Far East and the Asia Pacific at most, but it has certainly not paralysed the entire outbound movement, says Bhisham Mansukhani

It doesn’t take prophetic genius to first-guess the biggest victim of the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) outbreak within the Indian travel fraternity. The spread of the SARS in South East Asia in the first quarter of 2003-04 fiscal has transpired in the worst place and at the worst time for the Indian outbound industry and the quantum of affliction still remains to be assessed.

There have been a number of cancellations to China including delegates for the CECF (Chinese Export Commodities Fair), held in Guangzhou - capital of Guangdong, precisely where SARS is said to have originated. Karl Dantas, managing director, Bombay Travels, a leading tour operator in terms of traffic to China, had about 173 bookings in March for the fair in Guangzhou, all of which were cancelled. The fair itself was not cancelled.

On his end, Om Prakash, director, Orbit, also bore the brunt of 150 cancellations for CECF out of 250 reservations for a range of conventions in China. Although interestingly Prakash stated, ”I recently visited Shanghai and Beijing but felt none of the panic that is being felt in the rest of the world even though these cities are at the core of the crisis.”

China however is not the only destination facing this situation. Erstwhile “star” destination Singapore that raked in 3,75,000 Indian tourists last year has witnessed a number of SARS related deaths. Despite all of this, Vimal Harnal, area director for Northern and Western India, Singapore Tourism Board, seems very optimistic. “As bad as things are in the global context, the Indian traveller is resilient and is accustomed to living with crisis. To substantiate that, Singapore still remains the most widely visited among Indian outbounders. We still have groups visiting Singapore and have witnessed a 14 per cent drop on arrivals only in March. We have been keeping our trade partners updated with regards to the status in Singapore and what is being done to contain the virus.”

But tour operators are not in the same club of optimism. Meher Bhandara, general manager, corporate communications, Travel Corporation (India) Pvt Ltd (TCI), says, “Bookings to Singapore have fallen by 50 per cent and cruise tourism could well hit zero. Our corporate incentive groups and FITs (Free Individual Travellers) bound for cruises are currently off.”

Not to mention that Star Cruises has relocated their hub to Australia. Speaking of which Australia and New Zealand have also received a beating in tourist numbers due to this virus. Says Maggie White, general manager for South and South East Asia, ATC (Australian Tourist Commission), “Travel agents report a considerable drop in departures for Australia as a result of fear of transiting through Asian ports. While Indian travellers are still excited about Australia as a destination which is perceived as welcoming, friendly and at the moment, SARS-free. There is, however, apprehension about transiting via a second Asian port such as Singapore. The Singapore government is trying to address the concern and has provided a ‘SARS-free’ transit lounge exclusively for long haul visitors.”

Three cases of the virus have been confirmed in Australia to date. There has been no local transmission of SARS in Australia. New Zealand, too, remains largely unscathed by the SARS spread though Kiran Nambiar, country manager for India, NZTB (New Zealand Tourism Board), expects a 20 to 30 per cent drop in traffic, which he ascribes to SARS. “We received 18,000 Indian visitors last year and expected a growth of around 30 per cent this year. However, we need to put things in perspective. SARS has inhibited people from travelling, even if the said destination may not claim a SARS outbreak. New Zealand has seen a marginal drop purely because of the transit points being a concern. I would be careful not to push ‘SARS free’ as being a USP for any destination as cases can crop up anywhere. Right now, all we can do is provide the trade with relevant
information.”

So what are outbound agents selling this season?
Industry feedback states that SARS has put America and Europe back on the outbound map. The war status has simmered down all in sync with SARS blowing out of proportion, which has boosted westward traffic all over again. Apart from that, destinations gaining prominence include South Africa, Kenya, Maldives, Sri Lanka and Mauritius.

Says Sunil Gupta, head leisure travel, Thomas Cook, “With the war now behind us, west-bound travel has resumed both in the holiday and corporate travel segment. In the last few days we have seen a spurt in travel bookings to Europe, both in the GIT (Group Incentive Travel) and the FIT segment. Traffic is moving towards destinations like Hungary, Czech Republic, Scandinavia, Mauritius, Maldives, Sri Lanka, South Africa and Kenya. Traffic to Australia-New Zealand, I think, will pick up too.”

South Africa of course is riding the wave of World Cup Cricket hype and minimal SARS impact. Says Heena Munshaw, managing director, Beacon Holidays Pvt Ltd, “People are vary of travelling to the Far East and now even to Australia as a result of having to transit through Asian ports. They are now looking at South Africa and Kenya. However, SARS is only one of the factors, not the only one. Africa is no longer the dark continent as it was earlier perceived to be.”

However, it hasn’t remained unaffected. Commenting on the same, Sarel Opperman, marketing manager - India, SATOUR (South African Tourism), said, “Whilst South Africa has seen a drop in tourism from the rest of Asia, we had only a few cancellations related to SARS from India. We do not have the latest arrival figures and have to rely on report back from the incoming tour operators at this stage. We have not adjusted our focus regarding arrival figures expected for 2003 at this stage.”
the way forward

In the words of White, “Tourism is a resilient industry and international travel has become almost a ‘rite of passage’. We must remain positive and look to the future.”

The travel trade is firm on the belief that tourism will bounce back and things will resume normalcy, the only unpredictability seems to be the time factor. Nambiar reiterated this thought, saying there was no timeframe as to when this crisis shall end but he didn’t foresee SARS taking its toll on global travel in the long run. A cautiously confident Bhandara said there was no telling when a vaccine would be developed to counter SARS but the fact stood that the Indian traveller will not stay put.

For one point, most of the industry remains on the same page - that neither SARS nor the fear of it will deter travel for long.